Electrical Peak Load Analysis Victoria 1999 - 2003

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Download Main Report: Electrical Peak Load Analysis Victoria 1999 - 2003 (200501-ac-peakload.pdf - 1.9 MB)

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Summary

This report was prepared by Energy Efficient Strategies under contract to The Victorian Energy Networks Corporation. Substantial contributions to the project were made from the Australian Greenhouse Office with regard to ownership, penetration, household data and stock modelling. The primary purpose was to examine the peak load contribution from air conditioners on the Victorian Electricity System and to establish whether bottom up modelling would provide a more accurate peak load estimate in both the short term (day to day) and long term (10 years or more).

The objectives of this study were as follows:

Develop building thermal models that cover a range of typical Victorian residential dwellings (houses/units/flats), including relevant parameters such as orientation, shade and proportions of total Victorian housing stock to allow use in an aggregate Victorian model, with actual weather;
Provide models of relevant appliance use/occupant behaviour for residential buildings relating to period from 1 November through 31 March, essentially the Victorian daylight saving period for the years 1999 to 2002.
Define weather parameters needed, including period for modelling;
Calibrate the model and backcast over the last 4 years to demonstrate a likely stable model for the residential temperature sensitive component of Victoria's maximum demand;
Examination of long term potential impacts of air conditioners and building shell improvements on system peak loads.

The project was originally envisaged in two stages; the first was the establishment of a methodology to model peak system loads on hot days while the second was using this model to examine long term potential impacts of air conditioners on system peak loads, taking into account a range of factors such as trends in ownership, population growth and building shell design. This report primarily fulfils objectives 1 to 4 above. Some work towards objective 5 has been undertaken as part of this report, but further work will be required to fully quantify these future scenarios. This report is being finalised and published in the interest of documenting the work done to date prior to the forthcoming summer peak period.

This page last modified 23 February 2006